• 论文 •

### 基于局部加权线性回归的城市公交车排放能耗预测

1. 1.中山大学智能工程学院, 广东 广州 510006;
2.广东省交通环境智能监测与治理工程技术研究中心, 广东 广州 510275;
3.广东省智能交通系统重点实验室，广东 广州510275
• 收稿日期:2018-11-22 出版日期:2019-11-25 发布日期:2019-11-25
• 通讯作者: 刘永红(1977年生)，女；研究方向：交通环境大数据及尾气污染控制研究；E-mail: liu_its@163.com

### Estimation of emissions or electricity consumptions of urban buses based on Locally Weighted Linear Regression

YANG Pengshi1,2,3, DING Hui1,2,3, CHENG Tong1,2,3, LIU Yonghong1,2,3

1. 1. School of Intelligent Systems Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China；
2. Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Traffic Environmental Monitoring and Control, Guangzhou 510275,China；
3. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Transport System, Guangzhou 510275, China
• Received:2018-11-22 Online:2019-11-25 Published:2019-11-25

Abstract:

Measures of controlling traffic operation and emissions are developing to be dynamic and detailed. We applied the dynamic speed data of social vehicles from traffic real-time platform and GPS data of buses from practical tests, then used LWLR (Locally Weighted Linear Regression) to forecast average speeds and operating mode distributions of some urban buses in Guangzhou. Finally a model for estimating emission factors (for liquefied natural gas buses) and electricity consumptions (for electric buses) was built. The results showed that, the average speeds of buses were positively correlated with those of social vehicles. The operating mode distributions under different average speeds had regular patterns. With the increase of the average speeds of buses, the frequency of Bin1 (idling mode) decreased, the frequencies of Bin11-12 increased firstly and then decreased, and the frequencies of Bin13-15 (denoted low speed and acceleration) were partly transformed to those of Bin16-17 (denoted high speed and acceleration). The proposed algorithm reflected the no-linear trend that the speeds of buses increased with that of social vehicles, and the mean absolute percentage error of speeds of buses was 1985%. The mean absolute percentage errors of NOx emission factors and electricity consumptions of buses were 20.27% and 26.52%.