中山大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2020, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (4): 33-42.doi: 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.09.22.2019D038

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珠江流域干旱时空变化的经验诊断分析

陈子燊1,2
  

  1. 1. 中山大学新华学院,广东 广州 510520    2. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东 广州 510275
  • 收稿日期:2019-09-22 出版日期:2020-07-25 发布日期:2020-07-25
  • 作者简介:陈子燊(1952年生),男;研究方向:极端水文事件与风险研究;E-mail:eesczs@mail.sysu.edu.cn

Empirical diagnostic analysis on spatial and temporal variations ofdroughts in the Pearl River basin, China 

CHEN Zishen1,2   

  1. 1. Xinhua College of Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510520China;
    2. School of Geography and PlanningSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China
  • Received:2019-09-22 Online:2020-07-25 Published:2020-07-25

摘要: 根据1961~2011年珠江流域多时间尺度标准化蒸散发指数(SPEI),应用旋转经验正交函数分解、趋势和突变检验、小波谱与小波全域相干谱分析等方法,分析珠江流域该时期干旱空间分布与时间变化特征。结果显示:1)干旱空间分布与时间变化差异明显,20世纪70年代以来干旱发生事件持续增多,21世纪以来珠江流域中旱、重旱事件、干旱历时和强度都显著加大,秋旱尤为突出;2)根据SPEI的REOF时空分解,可将珠江流域划分成6个空间模态,其载荷中心分别位于的东江流域、桂北、桂东南、桂西南、黔南和滇东,各分区普遍存在干旱趋势,其中黔南和滇东干旱趋势显著,已成为珠江流域的干旱中心;3)6个分区的干湿变化具有2~8a的厄尔尼诺变化的振荡周期,部分分区显示与太阳黑子活动关联的11 a及22 a变化周期,各个分区对ENSO事件的响应存在显著差异。

关键词: 珠江流域, 标准化降水蒸散量指数, 干旱时空变化, 旋转经验正交函数, 小波分析, 小波全域相干谱

Abstract: Based on the multiple time scale index of standardization evaporation(SPEI) in the Pearl River basin from 1961 to 2011, the spatial structure distribution and temporal variation characteristics of drought in the Pearl River basin were analyzed by using the methods of rotating empirical orthogonal function decomposition, trend and mutation tests, wavelet spectral and wavelet global coherence spectral analysis. The results show that: 1) The spatial distribution and temporal variation of drought in the Pearl River basin are significantly different in the past 50 years; the number of drought events has been increasing since the 1970s. The duration and intensity of drought events in the Pearl River basin have increased significantly since the 21st century. 2) According to SPEI's REOF spatial decomposition, the Pearl River basin can be divided into 6 spatial modes, and the load centers are located in the south Guizhou and east Yunnan of the Dongjiang river basin in the north Guangxi, the southeast Guangxi, the southwest Guangxi, and the south Guizhou and the east Yunnan, respectively. There is a general drought trend in each region. The southern Guizhou and eastern Yunnan have become the drought center of the Pearl River basin. 3) The wet-dry variation in six zones has an oscillation period of 2-8 year El Nino variation. Some regions show 11 year and 22 year change periods associated with sunspot activities, and the response of each region to ENSO events is significantly different.

Key words: the Pearl River basin, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, spatial and temporal variation of drought, rotation of empirical orthogonal function, wavelet analysis, wavelet global coherence spectrum

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