中山大学学报自然科学版 ›› 2012, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (1): 102-106.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

广东极端降水的三参数概率分布模式对比

陈子燊 1,路剑飞1,刘曾美2   

  1. (1. 中山大学水资源与环境系,广东 广州510275;2. 华南理工大学水利水电工程系,广东 广州510640)
  • 收稿日期:2011-07-05 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2012-01-25 发布日期:2012-01-25

Comparative Analysis on Threeparameter Probability DistributionModels for Extreme Precipitation in Guangdong Province

CHEN Zishen1 , LU Jianfei1 , LIU Zengmei2

  

  1. (1.Department of Water Resource and Environment,Sun Yatsen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;2.Department of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640, China)
  • Received:2011-07-05 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2012-01-25 Published:2012-01-25

摘要: 采用包括广义极值分布、威布尔分布、广义逻辑斯特分布和皮尔逊3型分布在内的4种三参数概率分布模式推算广东省85个气象站历年日最大降水不同重现水平的分位数。主要结果如下:1)参数估计结果表明不存在普遍适用的极端降水概率分布模式;2)广东极端降水以珠江三角洲和沿海较为突出。其中,清远、汕尾、阳江为广东三大极端降水中心区;3)采用4种概率分布模式推算的极端降水重现水平差别很大。

关键词: 三参数概率分布模式, 极端降水, 拟合优度检验, 重现水平, 广

Abstract: Four probability distribution models, generalized extreme value distribution, Weibull distribution, loglogistic distribution and Pearson typeIII distribution, were used to calculate the different return levels of maximum daily precipitation for 85 stations in Guangdong province. The main results are as follows: 1) The results of parameter estimation indicate that there is no universally applicable extreme precipitation probability distribution model; 2) The extreme precipitation occurs more frequently in the Pearl River Delta and the coastal areas of Guangdong among which Qingyuan, Shanwei and Yangjiang are three extreme precipitation centers; 3) The return levels of extreme precipitation differ greatly between the calculations of four probability distribution models.

Key words: threeparameter probability distribution models, extreme precipitation, goodnessoffit test, return levels, Guangdong

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