中山大学学报自然科学版 ›› 2016, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 10-19.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Copula的东江流域丰枯遭遇及洪水频率分析

张正浩1,张强2,史培军2   

  1. 1.中山大学水资源与环境系∥华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室∥广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东 广州510275;
    2.北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室∥地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室∥减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-14 出版日期:2016-11-25 发布日期:2016-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 张强;E-mail: zhangq68@bnu.edu.cn

Copula-based flood frequency analysis with consideration of synchronous occurrence of wet/dry events in the East River basin

ZHANG Zhenghao1, ZHANG Qiang2, SHI Peijun2   

  1. 1.Department of Water Resources and Environment ∥Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute∥School of Geography and Planning, Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education ∥State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology ∥Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2015-10-14 Online:2016-11-25 Published:2016-11-25

摘要:

利用Copula函数分析了东江流域径流量边缘分布,分析各水文站点洪水频率,得出水库建成前后流域上中下游丰枯遭遇变化。研究表明:① 广义极值分布与对数分布为东江流域洪水过程研究的最优分布。Gumbel Hougaard Copula函数对所有站点丰枯组合拟合效果较优;② 三大水库对6组丰枯组合遭遇的影响有显著差异性:下游水库削峰填谷作用对丰枯组合影响明显,博罗-岭下组合平平遭遇概率增大最多,为4%;中上游水库削峰填谷作用对丰枯组合遭遇影响不明显,但其平平遭遇概率均有增大趋势,东江流域径流整体趋于平坦化;③ 龙川、河源、岭下、博罗4个水文站点水文过程皆受水利工程影响,洪峰流量与洪水总量在1974年后不再同时出现最大值,有效减小了洪灾威胁;④ 水库建成后不仅能通过削峰填枯作用降低洪峰流量与洪水总量,更能提高其联合重现期与同现重现期,减少洪水极大值分别或同时出现的概率,对流域的防洪有利。

关键词: 边缘分布, Copula函数, 丰枯遭遇, 重现期

Abstract:

As the critical water source of large cities such as Hong Kong and Guangzhou, the East River is influenced significantly in the hydrological processes by the Xinfengjiang, Fengshuba and Baipenzhu reservoirs. Copula functions are used to analyze the possibly-synchronous occurrence of high- and low-flow regimes in the East River. The results indicate that: ① The marginal distribution with the highest goodness-of-fit is log-normal distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. Meanwhile, the Gumbel Hougaard Copula has the best fitting efficacy for the inflow series of the hydrological stations; ② Three water-reservoirs have great impact on the synchronous occurrence of high and low flow events at 6 pairs of hydrological stations in the downstream, the reservoirs have the filling valley and modulating peak effects which cause flattened hydrological processes when compared to those in the upper and middle East River basin. Besides, the synchronous occurrences of normal vs. normal flows in the upper and the middle East River basin show an increasing trend, causing flattened hydrological variation of the East River basin; ③ The hydrological processes at the Longchuan, Lingyuan, Lingxia and Boluo stations are heavily influenced by hydraulic facilities and scare occurrences can be observed for the peak flood flow and flood discharge, which greatly reduced the flood risks; ④ The construction of water reservoirs can flatten the hydrological processes and reduce the occurrence frequency of high and low flows, being beneficial for flood mitigation.

Key words: marginal distribution, Copula functions, synchronous occurrences, return period

中图分类号: