Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni ›› 2020, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (4): 120-127.doi: 10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2019.04.10.2019B035

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Analysis of factors affecting city bus accident severity based on Logistic modela case in Guangdong Province 

LIN Qingfeng, DENG Yuanchang   

  1. School of Intelligent Systems EngineeringSun Yat-sen University//Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Transportation SystemGuangzhou 510006China
  • Received:2019-04-10 Online:2020-07-25 Published:2020-07-25

Abstract: In order to explore the impact of risk factors, i.e. human, vehicle, road and environment, on bus accident severity, 5 869 bus accidents happening in Guangdong Province during 2008 and 2017 were selected and then divided into 3 categories which were accidents between vehicles, vehicle-pedestrian accidents and single vehicle accidents. Taking accident severity as the dependent variable and selecting age, vehicle maneuver, road alignment, region, lighting condition and accident modalities etc as the independent variables, Logistic models were constructed for comparative analysis. The results show that: The models fit the data properly except the model of single vehicle accidents. The risk factors of bus accident severity had similarities and differences among accidents with different modalities. Vehicle maneuver, road type, region and time were significantly correlated with bus accident severity except in the model of single vehicle accidents. Road alignment only significantly influenced the overall bus accident severity, while type of crash location and holiday only had significant impact on severity of accidents between vehicles. The results can provide references for reducing bus accident severity.

Key words: traffic safety,  , bus transit,  , accident severity,  , K-means clustering,  , Logistic regression model

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