Abstract: An optimization model of bus arrival timetable utilizing historical data is proposed to increase the riding success ratio，reduce the waiting time，and improve the level of service of buses. The concept of service reliability is introduced to indicate the probability that the riders successfully take the bus according to the timetable，and the historical percentile arrival time is proposed as the control points；then the model to maximize service reliability with the constraints conditions of rider waiting time and bus running time is proposed，and the riding success ratio and waiting time are employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. A case study of a bus route in Guangzhou is presented，and the results show that the proposed model can produce a timetable with higher riding success ratio and less waiting time，comparing with traditional method.

Key words: traffic engineering, bus timetable, service reliability, rider waiting time